Some fear tea party could hurt GOP in 2012

Some Republican fear the tea party movement that gave Republicans key wins last November could be a detriment in 2012.

Others cite the boost in energy and enthusiasm the movement gave Republicans, which helped produce their huge wins in 2010. That makes the movement positive overall for the GOP, they say, even if it turns off the left side of the political spectrum.

But there are hints that as the movement matures into a better-known political force, it has alienated independent and moderate voters:

•A recent poll by a Gainesville Republican pollster and political consultant said independent voters, crucial in a statewide Florida race, look unfavorably on the Tea party movement by a 3-1 margin. National polls indicate a dip in the movement's favorability since last year.

•A moderate Democrat beat a Tea party-oriented Republican in the recent mayor's race in Jacksonville, normally a GOP stronghold; in a special election in a GOP-dominated congressional district in New York, a Democrat won after a campaign that turned on the issue of the Medicare revamp favored by the Tea party.

•Republican candidates in Florida and at the national level are repudiating their past stances on issues including abortion, climate change and rail transit to appeal to Tea party voters, leaving them open to flip-flopping charges from Democrats.

"If the Republican brand and message are overshadowed by the Tea party movement, the Republican Party increases the risk of being marginalized with moderate Republicans and independents," said the analysis of a poll done by Alex Patton, Gainesville-based GOP pollster.

Patton said his poll was leaked against his wishes and has been so controversial among Republicans he didn't want to acknowledge writing the analysis. "That quote has caused me a lot of trouble," he said.

He said he did the poll May 23-24, just after the Jacksonville race, in which Democrat Alvin Brown beat Republican Mike Hogan, who focused on Tea party issues – gun rights, illegal immigration and abortion.

The poll said 68 percent of Florida Republican voters view the Tea party movement favorably, but it suggested that so far, voters don't identify the GOP with the movement – 60 percent see at least some difference.

Asked whether the movement could damage Republicans, Patton said, "At this point, it's probably fair to say it's something that bears due consideration by candidates. In any election in Florida, you've got to look at the independents."

National polls show similar results.

An April Gallup poll of U.S. adults showed 47 percent viewed the movement unfavorably, up from 40 percent a year ago, with independents making the difference. Favorable views declined from 37 percent to 33 percent.

A Pew Center poll, also showing increased unfavorable views by independents, concluded, "As the Tea party has evolved from a grassroots movement to become a major force on Capitol Hill, public views of the Tea party have grown more negative."

There are some signs of strain between the establishment GOP and the Tea party.

Last week, a group of tea partiers in a training session at the conservative FreedomWorks organization in Washington marched on the nearby office of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, protesting the party's support for Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

Despite Hatch's 100 percent rating from the Christian Coalition last year, an 89 percent lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union in 2009 and even a 90 percent rating from the John Birch Society in 2004, Utah Tea Partiers hope for a more conservative Republican primary challenger.

"We're looking for someone who aligns better with our values," said Jacqueline Smith, founder of a Tea party group near in Park City, Utah. "Any time you bring in challengers in a primary, even if that person doesn't win, it pushes the other candidates further to the right."

Party spokesman Brian Walsh said the NRSC respects their views. "As we saw [in 2010], the Tea party is a strong net positive – it adds to the energy that drives voters to the polls."

But he added that Hatch, a senator since 1976, has no primary challenger now and happens to be NRSC vice-chairman, so it's standard procedure for the NRSC to support him financially.

In the face of that kind of pressure, Republican candidates are abandoning past moderate stances.

GOP presidential candidates including Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich are having to answer questions about past support cap-and-trade legislation to combat climate change; frontrunner Mitt Romney struggles to explain his creation of a health care reform plan similar to the Obama administration's in Massachusetts, as well as past support for abortion rights and gay rights.

In Florida, the three leading U.S. Senate candidates are struggling to answer for their past support for commuter rail or high-speed rail projects.

Most Republicans say they're not worried about being damaged by a Tea party association.

"Absolutely not," said veteran Florida GOP strategist Brett Doster. "The GOP will continue to absorb and benefit from Tea party energy."

But Miami GOP consultant Ana Navarro acknowledged, "There's a number of Republican traditionalists for whom electability is priority number one that have angst over the Tea party.

"At some point every voter has to consider electability of the candidates."

Retired University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican, said the movement was "a huge positive" in the 2010 election, but could be a problem in a presidential race.

"Neither party can win simply from their base," he said. "You have to go out to that independent sector. I think it's fairly obvious the independents don't like the direction the Tea party's moving."

Some Tea Partiers recognize the energy and enthusiasm of their movement won't serve their cause if it produces Republican nominees who lose general elections.

Asked about ideological purity vs. electability, Tampa Tea Party chairwoman Sharon Calvert said she recommends, "Look at that race by race and take each case on the merits."

"As William Buckley said, vote for the most conservative person who has a chance to win," she said. "I'm not a purist. You don't get everything all at once."

wmarch@tampatrib.com

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