Republicans appear ready to put Medicare changes on the table

Has the third rail of politics lost its juice?

The leading Republican candidates the U.S. Senate in Florida's 2012 election may find out – all three have supported the controversial notion of privatizing Medicare, as in a recent budget proposal by Rep. Paul Ryan and House Republicans.

If one of them wins the nomination against Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, he's certain to come under attack from Democrats, who say the proposal amounts to ending Medicare – touchy in the state with the nation's largest proportion of elderly.

But Republicans say Americans are ready to debate major change in the elderly entitlement programs. Such change is badly needed, they contend, and it's Democrats who could suffer from refusing to budge on the issue.

Those programs, chiefly Social Security but also Medicare, have been called the "third rail" of politics, like the electrified third rail of a subway – meaning it's fatal to touch them.

Two of the GOP contenders, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux, have directly backed the Ryan budget proposal, including the Medicare plan.

Instead of paying most of elderly people's medical bills, it would give them money to help pay for private health insurance, which they'd buy on their own.

The change wouldn't apply to anyone already 55 or over.

The third leading GOP contender, state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, advocated privatizing Medicare in a 1998 book, but said in an interview last week he wasn't ready to take a stand on the Ryan plan.

Both parties have used so-called "Mediscare" tactics against each other in the past.

Democrats will try it again in 2012 in Florida, where 17.2 percent of the population is 65 or older. Almost 32 percent of registered voters, and 43 percent of those who actually voted in 2006, are 60-plus.

"Floridians are rightly concerned with the Republican effort to end Medicare," said state party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "It shows ([the Republican candidates) are more interested in appeasing the Tea Party than doing what's right for our state.

"We will make sure that voters remember that come Election Day."

Republicans expect the attack but don't think it will yield the results Democrats hope for.

The public is beginning to understand that the nation must change elderly entitlement programs to solve its debt problem, said Tallahassee GOP consultant Corey Tilley.

"I think the tide is turning. Floridians and the voting public are warming to the fact that it's time for some reform," he said.

Republicans note that Marco Rubio made Social Security reform part of his 2010 campaign, though without proposing a specific plan, and won.

Some even believe the issue is a winner, not a vulnerability.

GOP strategist Brett Doster said Republicans can use the issue to attack "Obama's and Democrats' lack of leadership on budgetary issues, while our country is headed for bankruptcy. … If we continue on their path of doing nothing, there won't be a Medicare or a country as we know it."

He said Republicans must emphasize that reform proposals, like Ryan's, don't change benefits for those in or nearing retirement.

But University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett, who's politically neutral, disagreed.

"It's not a winning issue for Republicans," he said.

"When we start talking about making big changes to popular programs, people paying more or cutting back benefits, you almost never get Americans to agree. Anything that looks like it's going to end up costing seniors $6,000 or $7,000 more a year, there is no way it's going to be popular."

He said the Democratic stance against major changes "might not be defensible from a policy perspective, but for short-term politics, it may be a plus."

Polls on the Ryan plan vary but tend to back Jewett – most show a plurality, and some a majority, opposing the plan.

A Quinnipiac University poll in late April, for example, showed 60 percent opposition, using a question that made clear the change wouldn't take effect until 2022.

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll, however, suggested opinions could be swayed.

Voters opposed the plan 50-46 percent in the poll, and most of those on both sides changed their minds when presented with an argument for the other side -- 54 percent of the opponents and 68 percent of the proponents switched.

Ryan's proposal has roused controversy even among Republicans.

Newt Gingrich called it "too big a jump" and "radical change" in a television interview last week. "I don't think right-wing social engineering is any more desirable than left-wing social engineering," he said.

He apologized after an outcry from conservatives.

The Florida GOP Senate candidates haven't been so reticent.

In an April interview with the conservative web site Newsmax, Hasner called the Ryan budget plan, "A bold proposal (that) does what needs to be done" on entitlement reform and "a great step in the right direction."

"Republicans need to stand firm … and not worry so much about the political risks," he said.

LeMieux, in a Newsmax interview May 7, praised Ryan's Medicare proposal, saying, "We're going to have to make some changes, or we are not going to have that program in the future."

Haridopolos, in his 1998 book "10 Big Issues Facing Our Generation," wrote about Medicare, "We should take government out of the equation altogether. … Allow the insurance companies, hospitals and doctors to compete with one another."

In the recent interview, he said, "I wrote that back in 1996, or '97. I've got to re-read that one myself," and said he considers the Ryan Medicare plan "still under debate."

"I'm making the transition now from state Senate president to start looking more closely at these federal issues," he said. "I want to get a better concept of it."

wmarch@tampatrib.com

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