Climate change poses threat of war, USF forum will hear

Military analysts say climate change threatens a cascade of natural disasters - crop failures, famine and disease - that will strengthen terrorists by sparking conflict in unstable countries.

A leading proponent of this scenario is Ret. Vice Adm. Dennis McGinn, who will be at the University of South Florida on Monday for a public forum on climate change. See below for information on attending.

McGinn is a 35-year Navy veteran who commanded the San Diego-based Third Fleet. He'll be joined at USF by former Sens. Bob Graham, the Florida Democrat, and John Warner, Republican from Virginia, and former U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Cape Coral Republican.

Here are excerpts from a conversation this week with McGinn:

Q: What do you mean when you say climate change is a "threat multiplier?"

A: If you look around the world now, you see where there are crises. The effects of climate change is like putting a magnifying glass on those tensions, on those fault lines, on those economic or political lines, and it magnifies them and causes them to be much more intense, and some in cases much more frequent.

Q: What countries are most vulnerable to these disruptions?

A: In the Mideast, competition for water is very intense. We're seeing migrations across the Mediterranean and further east across from North Africa into Italy. In our own country we've had immigration pressure due to economic reasons for decades. Imagine if climate change caused a drought (in Mexico), less water, less food production, then the immigration problem would be overwhelming.

Q: What do you say to people who question the evidence of climate change?

A: I apply military judgment. We can't wait for 100 percent certainty. If you wait for 100 percent certainty on the battlefield, the consequences are disastrous. We know climate change is real. It's already happening. We don't need to be spending a lot of time worrying about the causes. This threat is real. This set of challenges are real and we need to do something about it.

Q: How does energy consumption figure into the climate change and national security issue?

A: This country burns oil for energy. We're dependent on foreign oil. In 2008, this nation shipped $386 billion overseas to pay our oil bill. This goes right to the core of our national security. How can we expect to have any leverage over a county like Iran, that could cut off 40 percent of the world's oil supply by cutting off the Straight of Hormuz?

Q: Is developing more domestic sources of oil the answer?

A: We need other alternatives. The oil that is easily extractable is being extracted now. It's going to get more expensive. As the demand grows and the price grows, there will be tremendous market competition. That competition could shift into outright conflict.

Q: Why should the average citizen care about this now?

A: You should care because it is going to cause your son or daughter or grandson or granddaughter, if they go into the military, to be put in harm's way much more frequently in much more prolonged conflicts. It threatens your personal, family and national economy. It inhibits our ability as a nation to extend our full moral authority in the cause of democracy and freedom around the world.

If you go

The public is invited to the forum on climate change, which is part of a nationwide series on links between climate change, energy and national security.

The non-profit Pew Environmental Group is chief sponsor.

The effort stems from a 2007 report from the CNA Corporation, a Pentagon-funded think tank, which calls climate change a "threat multiplier" for the U.S. military.

The Tampa forum is also sponsored by USF's Joint Military Leadership Center and the Patel Center for Global Solutions.

Seating is limited. Here's how to attend:

Where: the Kokolakis Auditorium at C.W. Bill Young Hall on the USF campus, northwest of the Sun Dome and Recreation Center.

When: 3 p.m., Aug. 31

More information: www.pewclimatesecurity.org

If you plan to attend: E-mail TampaAug31@gmail.com