Watching Niemann, it looks like Rays kept the right one

Sometimes it is interesting to think about the road not taken. With that in mind, go back a few weeks to the day after Jeff Niemann threw a two-hit shutout against Kansas City. People couldn't stop talking about his poise and command, and one veteran scout who watches the Tampa Bay Rays summed it up best, saying simply "They kept the right one."

He was referencing the decision at end of spring training whether to trade Jason Hammel to Colorado and put Niemann in the rotation. Normally it's best to be reserved about No. 5 starters, but Niemann has been a rock - as he was again Tuesday night against the White Sox in Chicago. A rally in the ninth inning gave the Rays a 3-2 victory, but we'd still be talking about the big right-hander this morning even if the result had gone the other way.

Since that game against the Royals about six weeks ago, Niemann is 5-0 with a 2.75 ERA. He has pitched 24 1/3 of a possible 27 innings in his last three starts and has allowed just 42 hits in his last 49 innings, which takes us back to that spring training decision.

It's not always easy to know who to keep and who to send packing. To be fair, Niemann's status forced the issue. He was out of options and surely would have been claimed quickly by another club if the Rays had tried to send him back to Durham, and obviously they couldn't allow that to happen.

They liked Hammel too, though, and pitching is hard to find. These decisions have lasting effects, and you just have to make the best call you can at the time. For instance, I remember thinking it was a mistake three years ago when executive vice president Andrew Friedman traded Julio Lugo to Los Angeles after the two sides couldn't reach agreement on a long-term deal.

I might have been a bit off on that one. If the Rays and Lugo had agreed on a new contract, there would have been no Jason Bartlett holding down shortstop last season and likely no magical playoff run.

Lugo eventually wound up with Boston, where he was recently designated for assignment, even though he had $13 million left on a four-year contract the Red Sox gave him before the 2007 season.

"We were paying for past performance, not current performance," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein told Boston.com. "That's the true definition of a mistake."

That one worked in the Rays' favor, but deals can just as easily go south. Pat Burrell hasn't delivered the goods since arriving from Philadelphia as a free agent, and the Rays are on the hook for $9 million to him next season. His contract is a big reason why the Rays have no payroll flexibility with the trade deadline approaching.

The Edwin Jackson-for-Matt Joyce trade is looking pretty lopsided, too, but we have to give that one a little more time. Joyce may well turn out to be a long-range answer in right field, even though he's in Durham now while Jackson pitched his way into the All-Star Game.

It would be interesting to travel both those roads again to see what would happen, but you make the best move you can with the information you have and go from there. A lot of times it just depends on gut feeling - like it was with Niemann.

At 6-foot-9, Niemann looks like the prototype guy who should throw 95 mph on every pitch. He can get the fastball up there for sure, but his off-speed and breaking pitches are every bit as devastating. He is hitting spots, throwing quickly and throwing with confidence.

Although a two-month stretch doesn't make a career, there certainly are a lot of reasons to be impressed. As the Rays head into the home stretch in search of a second consecutive playoff berth, one fact is indisputable. They had a decision to make back in the spring, and they kept the right one for sure.