Right moves could put Rays back in mix for 2010

After last season, we can never look at the Tampa Bay Rays the same way again. That's what makes this season so deflating. The Rays of 2009 will be known forever as a disappointment who couldn't sustain what they had built. When compared against themselves, this year's team underachieved.

The priority this offseason will be to get an accurate read on just what this team is. Are they the Rays of 97 wins and a miracle every night of a year ago, or is the erratic team of this season closer to who they really are?

We know the budgetary restraints they live under, but there is likely to be at least a little flexibility in the payroll even with Pat Burrell's $9 million salary next season. But they won't be paying Scott Kazmir ($8 million) or Troy Percival ($4 million), and moving pieces like Chad Bradford ($3.5 million), Akinori Iwamura ($4.5 million) or the two Gabes - Gross and Kapler - can free up more cash. Part of that cash will have to go for raises to some on the current roster, but it could help them acquire new talent, too.

Let's take a few guesses how they might shake things up.

They were a little too blase at times this season, I thought, because while they replaced the production of Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes, they never replaced those personalities in the clubhouse. The atmosphere in there could use a jolt, if you get my drift.

So could the rotation.

James Shields' ERA is nearly a half-run per game higher than last year. Matt Garza has already allowed more home runs and walks than in all of 2008. We know of Kazmir's struggles when he was here, and poor Andy Sonnanstine has just been a mess. Fun fact: Sonnanstine has pitched 105 fewer innings than last year, but he has allowed nearly as many home runs (21-18).

When you think of how well Jeff Niemann has pitched or you get carried away with the outstanding start Sunday from rookie Wade Davis, just remember Sonnanstine won 13 games last year and the Rays kept him instead of Edwin Jackson.

Next year's rotation is basically set, though. Barring injury or an unexpected trade, it'll be Shields, Garza, Niemann, David Price and Davis. On paper, that's a good enough group to put the Rays back in the playoff chase. I'd guess you might see three or four new arms in the bullpen, though - if they're out there.

Grant Balfour's falloff there has been particularly dramatic. His strikeouts are way down, and he has allowed double the walks of a year ago. His velocity has dropped significantly as well. My guess is you'll see Sonnanstine fill a long relief role and the Rays will look for alternatives to J.P. Howell at closer. It won't be easy to find one, at least on the market. Top closers are expensive.

Dioner Navarro will be interesting to watch. He has been a disappointment this year by any definition. At $2.1 million - with some sort of raise probably coming through arbitration - it's legitimate to wonder what his future with the club might be.

The same goes for Iwamura at second, especially if Sean Rodriguez is as good as people think/hope/pray he is.

Rodriguez was the player to be named later in the Kazmir deal, but he was the key to the trade. The Rays will bring him up before the end of this season to see whether his minor-league power can translate to the bigs.

They still have to work on a contract extension with Carl Crawford, who enters the last year of his deal next spring. Matt Joyce has waited long enough in Durham and needs to play, and phenom Desmond Jennings will be pounding on the door by next Memorial Day. Making all the pieces fit will occupy the winter for executive vice president Andrew Friedman. He'll be a busy lad.

There's no reason the Rays shouldn't contend next year, though. They need the starters to go deeper in games, and they need to strike out a lot less - particularly B.J. Upton. These things can all be fixed, even within the payroll limits that will be a fact of life here for this team. They need to be.

This year's team was pretty good and kept things interesting for most of the season, but when compared against themselves, that just didn't cut it any more.