If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, the University of Florida could become the latest example of what happens when a school fails to enforce an unenforceable rule.
As you probably know by now, the Gators are on the hot seat following allegations that Maurkice Pouncey took $100,000 while still employed as a student-athlete at Florida. I use the term "employed" deliberately since college football at that level is a full-time job for participants, and they are paid with books, board, tuition and the chance to receive a first-class education.
So says the NCAA public service announcements.
The truth is, the best players are really money machines - for their school, for nefarious agents, for hangers-on and eventually for themselves. The temptation to cash in before regulations allow can be great - too great at times. That's how we get into situations like this.
I'll wait for investigators to do their thing before passing judgment on Pouncey, but it's obviously a serious deal. If he did what ESPN.com reported - taking the money from someone affiliated from an agent shortly before the Gators played Cincinnati in last season's Sugar Bowl - the Gators might have to forfeit their 51-24 victory.
There might be other sanctions. Pouncey's brother, Mike, remains at Florida this season and could face questions about what he knew. It could be a real mess and embarrassment for the Gators.
Before it gets there, though, let me ask a question: How does any school stop something like this?
And shouldn't that be a signal to the NCAA that some kind of rules reform might be in order?
Maurkice Pouncey's agent is Joel Segal, who represents former Southern Cal star Reggie Bush. The Trojans just landed in the NCAA pokey, getting four years of probation and a two-year bowl ban over improper benefits Bush received while in school.
Pouncey was the first-round draft choice of the Pittsburgh Steelers in April, and we know what a player like that would be worth to any agent. Like all schools, Florida routinely instructs its players on what's allowed and what isn't. Players are especially warned about contact with anyone who might represent an agent.
It goes far beyond NCAA rules. An agent violating the rules can find himself in trouble with Florida law, facing up to 15 years in prison.
But it keeps happening, and I'm not sure what anyone can do about it.
I'd say the rules are outdated, given the millions generated by programs like the Gators, but an argument like that just pings off the NCAA's hide like a BB off a battleship.
I wonder how many college presidents ever faced the kind of temptation elite athletes do, though.
No disrespect intended, but did anyone ever approach UF President Bernie Machen and whisper, "Listen ... there's a hundred grand in this backpack if you'll just say yes to Harvard."
And even if something like that happened, taking this to an absurd level, it wouldn't have been a violation to take it. When was the last time you saw a math department on probation? I mean, a friend of mine played in the band in college (an SEC school, for what it's worth) and said that boosters gave them money all the time.
There's another thing that bothers me about all this.
Guys like Pete Carroll presided over what generally is considered a, ahem, "loose" program at Southern Cal, but he wound up with a big new coaching contract with the Seattle Seahawks. Reggie Bush got his millions in the NFL. The only ones really being punished are those who stayed behind.
That's because the current rules can't be enforced - at least not with any sense of fairness.
Here we go again anyway.
"We were made aware of some information in early June that we reported to law enforcement and we then shared with the NCAA and the SEC," UF athletic director Jeremy Foley said in a statement. "At this time we have no information that has indicated that there are any compliance issues for the University of Florida."
For now, it's best to let investigators do their jobs. Maybe they will find rules were violated, maybe they don't. All I know is once this case is resolved it's only a matter of time until it happens again - at any school where good football and basketball players don't want to wait to cash in on their dreams.
Short of changing the rules and letting anything go, I don't know how you enforce rules against that. The good news is, people are making a living off this, richly and legally.
They're called lawyers. Even better, UF has a dandy law school.
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