Complexity clouds decision on Connolly

One thing you can say about the early play of rookie Brett Connolly: He is an NHL player.

The only question regarding Connolly is whether that will be starting this year or starting next year. That's because decision day is looming for the 19-year-old sixth overall pick in the 2010 draft. With five games under his belt, the clocking is ticking on when the Lightning must decide to either keep him here or send him back to junior, where he would be a big part of the Prince George Cougars in the Western Hockey League.

Because of his draft year, Connolly is only eligible to play in the NHL or the WHL this season. And Tampa Bay has to decide which one it will be before Connolly plays in his 10th game. The Lightning's 10th game will be on Oct. 27 in Nashville, and assuming Connolly keeps playing as he has, there is no reason to think he won't be playing in the next four leading up to that game.

If Connolly is sent back, the clock on his contract does not begin until next season. Once he plays that 10th game this season, the contract starts this year even if the team decides to send him back to junior.

The decision is not as simple as it would appear, because based on his play to this point, it would be a no-brainer that Connolly belongs and he stays the entire season. One could argue that Connolly has been among the team's most consistent forwards in the early stretch.

During the first three games, Connolly played third-line minutes while getting an occasional shift on one of the top two lines and a few shifts on the second power play. The past two games, he has been on the top line with Steven Stamkos and Marty St. Louis, the same line on which he played most of the preseason.

And Connolly did not appear out of place and looked right at home, which isn't easy playing with two of the game's top performers.

"Anybody that would play with these guys would be intimidated because you want to play their game, you don't want to make mistakes, you want to make sure you fit, and there is a lot of extra pressure that not a lot of guys can take," Lightning coach Guy Boucher said. "So for a youngster to handle the pressure, you have to funnel the task into things that are very specific and very simple or else the kid will get lost in it, so in this case he is a big boy that skates, and that's what you need with those guys and guys who can't skate can't play with them. They are gone and you are always late on the play, so he can follow with them."

That sounds like a glowing endorsement for Connolly, and it is deserving.

But here is what you have to measure if you are Steve Yzerman and Boucher: Can Connolly do it for an entire season at the NHL level where the grind of an 82-game schedule can wear down anybody? And Connolly nearly missed an entire season in 2009-10 because of hip injuries, which is a testament to how much work he put in during this past summer just to earn a spot on the Lightning roster.

Will facing the likes of Zdeno Chara, Marc Staal, Dustin Byflugien and Chris Pronger on a nightly basis take a toll on a 19-year-old physically and mentally? If so, what does that do to the player's confidence?

It's a lot to weigh for the Lightning, and the decision is not as simple as it appears.

"He eventually will be an NHL player," Boucher said. "Now will he be an NHL player starting this year for a long time? It's up to him and it's up to, I think, circumstances, too, for us to see if he can manage it because we don't want to hurt the kids. It's not about us accelerating the process; it's about us respecting the process and being patient and smart because I've seen so many guys that are good lose it because they stick too early. So we want to make sure we don't make that mistake."

The clock is ticking.