Rays of hope keep playoff chances alive

TAMPA This news will come as a shock to almost nobody, but the odds are heavily stacked against the Lightning to make the playoffs.

I know, I know, crazy right?

After Saturday's win against Florida – which leads the Southeast division – Tampa Bay still sits eight points out of a playoff position and eight points out of the division lead. With 31 games remaining on the schedule, there are only 62 points still available. If you figure it will take 94 points to make the playoffs, the Lightning will need to earn roughly 42 of those remaining possible 62 points.

There is little margin for error, to say the least.

In fact, according to website www.sportsclubstats.com, Tampa Bay's chances to make the playoffs at 5.8 percent before Saturday's games. That number was as high as seven percent before the Lightning dropped the overtime decision to Winnipeg on Thursday.

Is it possible? Of course it is, as long as there is a chance there is hope and as long as there is hope there is belief. So as long as there is hope, let's put that hope in the right direction and what might be the best chance for a miracle-type run to occur – within the division.

Counting the game against the Panthers, of the final 32 games of the season nine are against divisional opponents, which presents an opportunity to make up 18-points within the division. Take advantage of those games, sprinkle in key victories in the other 23 contests and – abracadabra, a playoff spot could be gained.

But it's going to take plenty of magic to get it done and a little luck.

Here's the trick in the NHL about trying to make up ground – it's difficult to do. Games become tighter, goals are more difficult to score and points become harder to gain. And too often – because of those low-scoring, tight-checking affairs – games head to overtime resulting in three-point contests. So even on nights in which Tampa Bay may pick up a victory, it may only result in a one-point gain in the standings if a team they are chasing loses a game in overtime.

And just like this week, with so many divisional games played in the final two months of the season, a divisional opponent is picking up a victory and two points.

I'm not trying to be a Donnie Downer here, but reality is sometimes often difficult to accept. Even a few times this week, the improbable run by the Rays in September was brought up as a light of hope after the Rays overcame a nine-game deficit to overtake the Boston Red Sox on the last day of the season to make the baseball playoffs.

There is a major difference between with the Rays were able to accomplish and what the Lightning are trying to duplicate – the Rays only needed one team to stumble as they went on a streak. The Lightning have to count on at least three teams to hit the skids in the standings in order for Tampa Bay to make up the necessary ground.

Yes, there is a chance that the Lightning will be able to pull off the improbable and make a run at the playoffs, and chasing down the division might be the way to make it happen. And as a member of the Jets traveling media, the division is there for the taking for any of the top four teams in the Southeast – Florida, Washington, Winnipeg and Tampa Bay – that want to jump up and take it, so why not a Lightning that has top-end talent up front?

But it won't be easy, even if there is a chance.