Numbers not yet adding up for Rays

After getting astonishing mileage out of his mathematically challenged "9 = 8" motivational equation last year, Rays manager Joe Maddon came up with "'09 > '08" for this season.

That 2009 could be greater than 2008 for the Rays was a tall order, given that the '08 team advanced to the World Series. But Maddon was convinced in February his club could "hopefully be better by at least three games."

The '08 Rays proved nine can equal eight, meaning nine players going hard for nine innings can secure one of eight playoff berths. They even surpassed the equation, capturing the American League pennant before losing to the Phillies in the World Series four games to one.

But how are they doing with Maddon's '09 > '08?

The Rays begin their final homestand before the All-Star break tonight at 44-39, which, after Monday's games, has them 51/2 games behind the Red Sox and 41/2 behind the Yankees. After 83 games last year, they were 51-32 and in first place by 21/2 games.

Comparing '09 to '08 isn't as simple as looking at the bottom line, though. The Rays have played better than their .530 winning percentage of late, even taking their current four-game losing streak into account. And in some areas, they're better than they were last year.

With improved right-handed hitting and the anticipated addition of left-hander David Price to the starting rotation, the 2009 Rays looked better on paper than last year's team entering the season.

Inconsistent starting pitching, slow starts by a couple of key position players and a step backward in defense have kept them from realizing that potential.

However, the Rays have pitched and played well enough at times to suggest that Manager Joe Maddon might get another A in math with his '09 > '08 equation. Here's how this year's team stacks up so far:

Record

The Rays are seven games behind last year's pace at 44-39, but that's partly due to a 9-14 April. Since April 30, the Rays are 36-25 (.590), among the AL's best, and since June 10, they're 15-8 (.652). At Tropicana Field, the Rays have begun to reclaim the homefield advantage that helped them win the AL East last year. They've won 10 of their past 11 and 20 of their past 25. Of concern, though: Tampa Bay is only 9-14 in one-run games and 1-2 in extra-inning games after going 29-18 and 10-6 in those categories last year, respectively.

Run production

Despite scoring only seven runs while being swept at Texas over the weekend, the Rays ranked second in the majors behind the Yankees in runs scored with 449 and runs per game at 5.4 entering Monday. That's an improvement over last year, when they tied for 13th in runs with 774 through the regular season (4.78 per game). Although a lot of the runs have come in blowouts, the Rays are a better offensive club than they were last year. They're batting eight points higher (.272), drawing more walks (4.4 versus 3.9) and have a higher on-base percentage (.354 versus .340).

Bullpen

After battling inconsistency early in the year, when some of the starters weren't always eating up their share of innings and Manager Joe Maddon was still getting used to a new mix, the bullpen has settled down and again become one of the club's strengths. The group has pitched to a 3.23 ERA, which is better than last year's 3.55 mark. Tampa Bay continues to go without a true closer. J.P. Howell hasn't allowed a run in his past 15 appearances, and Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler have gone 11 appearances each without giving up a run.

Starting pitching

The Rays had five starters with double-digit wins last year, and down the stretch, there wasn't a weak link in the rotation. That kind of consistency hasn't been there. This season, Andy Sonnanstine was sent to Triple-A Durham on June 27 with a 6.61 ERA and Scott Kazmir spent a month on the disabled list working on his mechanics. James Shields and Matt Garza are each 6-6, partly because they haven't gotten much run support. Heralded rookie David Price has shown that while he's an enormous talent, he's also a work in progress. Jeff Niemann has been mostly a pleasant surprise.

Power

With 107 home runs - fourth in the majors entering Monday - the Rays are on pace to surpass last year's 180. Carlos Pena continues to lead the AL with 23, and Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist each have cracked 16. Given that free-agent acquisition Pat Burrell hasn't found his power groove yet (he has only three home runs after averaging 31 the past four years), the Rays believe they might even be able to pick up the home run pace in the second half.

Defense

Starting pitching and defense were the hallmarks of the 2008 team, and neither has been as sharp this year. The Rays have committed 53 errors after making 90 last year. Carlos Pena, last year's AL Gold Glove winner at first base after committing only two errors, has made eight this year. Third baseman Evan Longoria has eight. Catcher Dioner Navarro has committed four errors with four passed balls and thrown out 31.6 percent his attempted base stealers after catching 35.7 percent last year.

Speed

With a healthy Carl Crawford leading the way, Tampa Bay easily leads the majors in stolen bases with 124 and should easily eclipse last year's majors-leading total of 141. Crawford (41) and B.J. Upton (30), who recovered from a dismal start to earn AL Player of the Month honors for June, are easily the majors' top base-stealing tandem. Jason Bartlett (17) is on pace for a career high.

Bench

The Rays got contributions from up and down their bench last year, both when injuries pressed reserves into action and in pinch-hitting and platoon situations. The bench has contributed in much the same way. Super utility man Ben Zobrist has filled in admirably as the everyday second baseman for Akinori Iwamura, who suffered a knee injury in late May and is out until at least late summer. Maddon's right-field platoon of Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross has started to produce more consistently as Kapler's bat has come alive.