The Tribune's preseason Big East countdown

With the Big East's football media days slated for Aug. 3-4 in Newport, R.I., here is how The Tampa Tribune's Brett McMurphy voted in the Big East media poll.

This year's Big East media poll will be revealed on Aug. 4.

Predicting the Big East for 2009

No. 1 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh instant analysis: Since Dave Wannstedt returned to coach his alma mater in 2005, the Panthers have been stockpiling some of the nation's top recruiting classes. After three fairly unspectacular seasons, Pittsburgh finally broke through last season with a 9-4 record and a tie for second in the Big East (OK, so they are still trying to find the end zone at the Sun Bowl). Anyway this fall, the Panthers return 15 starters - the most of any Big East team - and hope the addition of new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti, Jr., a Pittsburgh native whose offense at California averaged 32.6 points a game last season, can spark the offense and offset the loss of RB LeSean McCoy. QB Bill Stull returns after a so-so junior season, but welcomes back WR Jonathan Baldwin (22.4 yards per catch).

The biggest reason I'm picking the Panthers to win the league is because of their defense. They ranked third in the league in total defense last season. DEs Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard (who combined for 13 sacks) and DT Mick Williams give the Panthers arguably the Big East's top defensive line (USF might dispute that). Tackling machine Scott McKillop will be tough to replace at linebacker, but the Panthers have a talented secondary, with three returning starters in CBs Aaron Berry and Javani Cahppel and SS Dom DeCicco. Pitt's special teams have improved (remember its special team debacles against USF a few years ago?) and last year the Panthers led the country with 10 blocked kicks. Pitt must win at Rutgers and West Virginia (not easy by any means), but gets USF and Cincinnati at home.

Flashback: Last year I predicted Pittsburgh would finish second in the league. The Panthers finished in a three-way tie for second.

Fun with numbers: Under Wannstedt, the Panthers are 3-7 against Associated Press ranked opponents.

If you happen to be in Vegas: In the past two years, Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the pointspread as a road underdog. The Panthers also have won four of their last five games as a road underdog.

Pittsburgh will finish worse than first if: Stull stinks. If he doesn't show improvement from last season, the Panthers will be hard-pressed to win the league title. Last season, Stull could manage the game and rely on the talents of McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling. If Pitt doesn't establish a solid running attack, the Panthers will shuffle down the league standings.

My Twitter post on the Panthers (in 140 characters of less): Pitt: We've lost to Bowling Green, Ohio & Toledo last few years. Since '91 we've never gone unbeaten in non-league play. Is this the year?

No. 2 Rutgers

Rutgers instant analysis: The Scarlet Knights' all-time leading passer and career-leader in receiving yards is gone. So why am I picking Rutgers to finish second in the league? Uh, good question. The Scarlet Knights do return all five starters on what should be the league's best offensive line along with their top four running backs from last season. Fifth-year senior Dom Natale, who threw for all of 36 yards last season, is expected to get the starting nod at quarterback, replacing Mike Teel. Natale will have the benefit of working behind a line, featuring LT Anthony Davis (6-6, 325), C Ryan Blaszczyk (6-4, 285) and RT Kevin Haslam (6-7, 295).

If Natale struggles, don't be surprised to see highly-touted true freshman Tom Savage get a shot. LB Ryan D'Imperio and DEs George Johnson and Alex Silvestro are among six returning starters on a defense that allowed a Big East-low 112 yards rushing per game in league play. The Scarlet Knights also have a very favorable league schedule - getting their four toughest opponents - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, USF and West Virginia - at home, leaving a very possible 3-0 Big East road record with games at UConn, Syracuse and Louisville.

Flashback: Last year I predicted Rutgers would finish fifth in the league. The Scarlet Knights finished in a three-way tie for second.

Fun with numbers: 0-14. That's Rutgers' record in its last 14 games against West Virginia. The Scarlet Knights' last victory against the Mountaineers came in 1994 when they were coached by Doug Graber. Rutgers can halt the losing streak when WVU comes to Piscataway in the regular season finale on Dec. 5.

If you happen to be in Vegas: In the four years of the new Big East alignment, Rutgers is 5-9 against the pointspread in Big East games in odd years (2005 and 2007), compared to 11-3 in even years (2006 and 2008). So tread carefully with the Scarlet Knights in '09.

Rutgers will finish better than second if: it has a smooth transition at quarterback. That's obviously a big if, but if the offensive line lives up to the preseason hype, it would take a lot of pressure off Natale or Savage. The Scarlet Knights also must take advantage of their home schedule and find a way to finally beat West Virginia to have any shot at winning the league title.

Rutgers will finish worse than second if: defenses are able to stack the line, daring the Scarlet Knights to throw and they're unable to take advantage with an unproven quarterback. If they lose any of their road league games, I can't see them finishing in the top two. Also, perhaps more importantly, the secondary must improve from last year's numbers after allowing Big East quarterbacks to complete 64.5 percent and average 230.6 passing yards per game, both which ranked second-to-worst in Big East play.

My Twitter post on the Scarlet Knights (in 140 characters of less): Rutgers: 140 years of football. This year features games vs. Howard & Texas Southern. Next year, the Washington Generals visit Piscataway.

No. 3 West Virginia

West Virginia instant analysis: Pat White is gone. That about sums it up, right? White had a tremendous career, setting the Big East's career total offense record (until Sept. 5, late third quarter of USF's opener against Wofford when Matt Grothe breaks it) and became the first player in NCAA history to win four bowls as a starter. No shocker here, he will be missed. Coach Bill Stewart even said last year before the season they should "put up a statue for that kid." Hopefully for WVU, White's replacement - senior QB Jarrett Brown - won't resemble a statue. Last year in limited action, Brown fared pretty well, averaging 4.7 yards a carry and completing 73.3 percent (only 30 attempts, though). But how will he respond all year in the starting role?

One thing he'll have no trouble doing is handing off to Noel Devine, my pick as the league's top RB who had 1,289 yards in 2008. Also, WRs Alric Arnett and Jock Sanders (a combined 88 catches last year) should make Brown's transition a little easier. Like USF, the Mountaineers must replace four starters on the offensive line. The defense is led by DT Scooter Berry and senior MLB Reed Williams, who missed last season with a shoulder injury. Three starters also return in the secondary for WVU's unconventional 3-3-5 defense, but the Mountaineers graduated a good one in K/P Pat McAfee.

Flashback: Last year I predicted West Virginia would finish first in the league. The Mountaineers finished in a three-way tie for second.

Fun with numbers: In a four-year span from 2004-07, West Virginia scored 17 or less points in only seven of 52 games. In Stewart's first year in 2008, WVU scored 17 or less points in five of 13 games.

If you happen to be in Vegas: In the past four years, West Virginia is 9-3 against the pointspread as a favorite in Big East road games.

West Virginia will finish better than third if: Brown > White. Perhaps the Mountaineers - the perennial favorite to win the league every year under White - could relish in proving the disbelievers wrong, who say they can't win without White. WVU also could contend for the league title if it can return to the explosive offense it enjoyed under Rich Rodriguez (averaging 38.8 and 39.6 points in 2006 and 2007, compared to 24.5 in 2008 under Stewart). Even though, the offense's production dropped more than two TDs a game in 2008, the Mountaineers still were only nine points away from a 7-0 Big East season.

West Virginia will finish worse than third if: If Brown struggles out of the gate (East Carolina in Week 2, at Auburn in Week 3), the Mountaineers could find themselves in a big-time funk when Big East play rolls around. Other than at Syracuse, WVU's remaining Big East road schedule is a killer - at USF and at Cincinnati in a pair of Friday night ESPN tilts and the season finale at Rutgers. In 2005 and 2007, WVU managed to go 7-1 in those games, but a 2-2 split on the road or an unthinkable 1-3 road record this fall could send the Mountaineers tumbling down the league standings.

My Twitter post on the Mountaineers (in 140 characters of less): We visit USF on Oct. 30. For sale: anyone in Tampa interested in buying 100 or so New York Yankees caps? Mint condition. Only worn once

No. 4 USF

USF instant analysis: The Bulls are the hardest team to peg. Is fourth place too low for a team featuring arguably the league's top offensive and defensive players in QB Matt Grothe and DE George Selvie? Or is fourth too high for a team that went 2-5 in league play last season and must replace 10 starters, including four on the offensive line, and both coordinators? Also, which Bulls team will emerge in 2009? The one that's begun the past two seasons a combined 11-0 and reached No. 2 and No. 10 in the Associated Press rankings or the one that's stumbled in closing a combined 6-9 and finishing unranked both years? The skill players on offense are in place for USF to have a big year: Grothe, WRs Jessie Hester, Dontavia Bogan and Carlton Mitchell (to name a few) and RBs Mike Ford, Jamar Taylor and Mo Plancher. However, the biggest unknown: how will the big (inexperienced) uglies perform in the trenches? That could be the key for the season.

Defensively, Selvie, Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain provide the foundation to give USF its best D-line in program history. Kion Wilson returns at linebacker and must fill the void of Tyrone McKenzie, who led the Bulls in tackles the past two seasons. Senior safety Nate Allen is the most experienced member of a secondary that is largely unproven. Finally, how will K Delbert Alvarado perform, having to handle all of the kicking duties after Maikon Bonani's season-ending injury? Last year, USF averaged a Big East-best 405 yards offense per game, while allowing 288 yards, the second-lowest average among Big East teams - yet still finished a disappointing sixth in league play. If the offense and/or defense can't match last season's numbers, realistically how much can the Bulls expect to improve?

Flashback: Last year I predicted USF would finish third in the league. The Bulls finished sixth. Flashing back even further: In 2007, I picked the Bulls third (they finished in a two-way tie for third). In 2006, I picked the Bulls fifth (they finished in two-way tie for fourth).

Fun with numbers: USF is 11-0 when Grothe doesn't throw an interception and 15-13 when he throws an interception.

If you happen to be in Vegas: Since 2005, USF is 10-4 against the pointspread as an underdog with USF winning six of the 14 games outright.

USF will finish better than fourth if: the offensive line stays injury free and exceeds expectations. Also, the Bulls need to have a smooth transition with new offensive and defensive coordinators Mike Canales and Joe Tresey. Grothe will be working with his third offensive coordinator in four seasons, but under Canales he responded with the best spring of his career. At Cincinnati, Tresey's defensive units forced a league-leading 64 turnovers the past two seasons so if USF's defense can enjoy that success, the Bulls easily could finish in the top three.

USF will finish worse than fourth if: history repeats itself. Since joining Conference USA in 2003, the Bulls have never been undefeated at home in league play or better than 2-2 on the road in the Big East. If those happen again, that means the best USF can hope for is 4-3 in league play. Add in the annual head-scratching loss that seems to plague USF and the Bulls' propensity for penalties (ranking among the nation's six most penalized teams for eight consecutive years) and a second consecutive sub .500 Big East record is a real possibility. USF also must improve on its all-time 5-9 Big East road record, including 0-3 last season. This year the Bulls visit Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and UConn.

My Twitter post on the Bulls (in 140 characters of less): USF: Past 2 years we've been like Leavitt's 5.72 40-dash: a rocket out of starting blocks, but huffing and puffing when we reach finish line.

No. 5 Cincinnati

Cincinnati instant analysis: Where to rank Cincinnati? The Bearcats are the defending Big East champions, feature the league's best coach in Brian Kelly and return eight offensive starters, including senior QB Tony Pike. A slam dunk to repeat, right? Not really. Only one defensive starter returns and Bob Diaco replaces fired defensive coordinator Joe Tresey, who landed at USF. No question, Pike and WR Marty Gilyard (81 catches, 1,276 yards) are among the league's best at their positions. Also, three offensive line starters return so the Bearcats should be able to improve last year's 23.6 point average in Big East games, but will they be able to stop anyone? SS Aaron Webster is the lone returning defensive starter. Gone are senior CBs Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith - ask USF how easy it was last season for the Bulls to replace two stud senior CBs? - along with S Brandon Underwood and DLs Terrill Byrd and Connor Barwin. Last season, Cincinnati placed five players on the first- or second-team all-league defense, including P Kevin Huber, and all five are long gone. And for the first time, the Bearcats will be the hunted instead of the hunters. How well will they deal with that?

Flashback: Last year I predicted Cincinnati would finish fourth in the league. The Bearcats finished first.

Fun with numbers: In games decided by seven points or less as a Division I-A coach, Kelly is 17-10 (63 percent), easily the best percentage among current Big East coaches. UConn's Randy Edsall is second (18-15, 54.4 percent).

If you happen to be in Vegas: Under Kelly, Cincinnati is a perfect 7-0 against the pointspread when playing Associated Press ranked Big East opponents. Despite being an underdog in five of those seven games, the Bearcats won six of the seven games.

Cincinnati will finish better than fifth if: the defense jells quickly (and opening the season at Rutgers for an ESPN Labor Day special won't make it any easier). Also to finish in the top half of the league, Pike must prove last year wasn't a fluke - see Orange Bowl performance (16 of 33, four interceptions) - and the Bearcats can't get complacent.

Cincinnati will finish worse than fifth if: it can't handle the "Big East defending champion" bulls-eye on its chest and the defense can't repeat last year's domination (second in Big East play in total defense and rushing defense and first in sacks). Last year, the Bearcats were 6-0 in games decided by eight points or less. Those things usually have a funny way of evening out the following year.

My Twitter post on the Bearcats (in 140 characters of less): Cincinnati: Defending Big East champs are the best football team in the city.

Archbishop Moeller High second, NFL's Bungles third.

No. 6 UConn

UConn instant analysis: Two years ago when the Huskies had four Big East home games, they finished as co-champions with West Virginia. It's doubtful that Randy Edsall can work that sort of magic this season, but if so, he's a lock for Coach of the Year. The Huskies return 12 starters, but must replace RB Donald Brown (NCAA-leading 2,083 yards rushing in 2008). Senior RB Andre Dixon, who had 828 yards as a sophomore but only 37 yards last season, is back. But after spring drills, sophomore Jordan Todman, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry as a freshman, was atop the depth chart. Last season, the Huskies' defense allowed a league-low 293 yards per game in Big East play. LB Scott Lutrus and FS Robert Vaughn, a pair of second-team All-Big East selections, are among six defensive starters returning.

Sophomore K Dave Teggart, who hit 13 of 15 field goals last season, also is back. But if the Huskies finished fifth in the league last season with the Big East's leading rusher and No. 1 defense, is it realistic to expect UConn to improve in the league standings if the running game and/or defense don't match its 2008 numbers? Probably not. However, every year it seems the media - and I'm as guilty as any one - underestimates the Huskies and they end up finishing higher than projected. I still haven't learned my lesson: I'm picking them sixth, so they'll probably finish second or third.

Flashback: Last year I predicted UConn would finish seventh in the league. The Huskies finished fifth.

Fun with numbers: 11-2. That's UConn's home record the past two years, tied with West Virginia as best in the Big East during that span.

If you happen to be in Vegas: In its past four Big East seasons, UConn is 8-2 against the pointspread as a home underdog. Despite being the underdog, UConn managed to win five of those 10 games.

UConn will finish better than sixth if: it can match its home success/luck it did two years ago when it went 4-0 in Big East play and also improve its play in Big East road games, where the Huskies are a woeful 3-11 the past four seasons.

UConn will finish worse than sixth if: it doesn't improve its quarterback play from last season (five TDs, 17 interceptions, ugh!) and if there also is a huge drop off in the running game. The Huskies also could tumble down the league standings if they don't go at least 3-1 at home because a 0-3 league road record (at Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Cincinnati) is a real possibility.

My Twitter post on the Huskies (in 140 characters of less): We unequivocally will never EVER schedule an away game w/out receiving a return home date (except for you, Notre Dame, Oh Great One!)

No. 7 Louisville

Louisville instant analysis: Just win, baby. That's what Steve Kragthorpe needs to do if he wants to return as the Cardinals' offensive coordinator - and head coach in 2010. Entering his third season as Louisville's coach, Kragthorpe decided to take over the duties as offensive coordinator this season. With Greg Robinson's dismissal from Syracuse, Kragthorpe officially moves to the top of the Big East's "coach on the hot seat" list.

For the third consecutive year, Kragthorpe will have a different starting quarterback. This fall, it will be either JUCO phenom Adam Froman (6-4, 217) or N.C. State transfer Justin Burke (6-3, 229). For Kragthorpe's sake, whoever emerges better be more like Brian Brohm than Hunter Cantwell. UL returns seven offensive starters, including last year's Big East freshman of the year, RB Victor Anderson. Gone, though, are all-league offensive linemen Eric Wood and George Bussey. Former Utah State coach Brent Guy replaces Ron English as the new defensive coordinator - they actually play defense? The Cards return six starters from last year's unit that allowed a league-worst 34.4 points and 416 yards in Big East play.

Flashback: Last year I predicted Louisville would finish sixth in the league. The Cardinals finished tied for seventh with Syracuse.

Fun with numbers: Last season, UL was 0-7 in games it committed the same number or more turnovers than its opponent.

If you happen to be in Vegas: Louisville is 1-5 against the pointspread in its last six Big East road games (losing all six). The Cardinals visit UConn (Oct. 17), Cincinnati (Oct. 24), West Virginia (Nov. 7) and USF (Nov. 21) this season.

Louisville will finish better than seventh if: it can figure out a way to end a two-game losing streak to Syracuse AND pull off a rare Big East road win AND hold onto the pigskin. UL also must be more productive. Last season, the Cardinals had the second-best offense (seriously) in Big East play, averaging 371 yards, but couldn't convert - ranking second-to-last in points per game (18.3) in league games.

Louisville will finish worse than seventh if: it gets crushed by the Orange (again), the turnover problems continue and the Cards don't score more under their new offensive coordinator. If this happens, they'll be looking for a new offensive coordinator - and coach - in 2010.

My Twitter post on the Cardinals (in 140 characters of less): Like former UL coach Schnellenberger once said: We're on a collision course with the national title - or the International Bowl.

No. 8: Syracuse

Syracuse instant analysis: Syracuse alum Doug Marrone takes over for Greg Robinson, who was 10-37 in four seasons. Marrone spent the past four years in the NFL and last season was New Orleans' offensive coordinator. Now Marrone goes from the Saints to the Aints: his alma mater has not had a winning season since 2001 and has finished in the Big East basement (alone or tied for last) for the past four seasons. With 14 returning starters and eight home games, the Orange, who was 3-9 last season, should see some improvement this season, right? Can't get worse.

Defensive tackle Arthur Jones is one of the Big East's best, but he has little help. Offensively, the battle at quarterback should be interesting between highly touted redshirt freshman Ryan Nassib, senior Cameron Dantley, who started last season, and former Duke point guard Greg Paulus, who hasn't played competitive football in five years since he was in high school. Paulus hasn't played competitive football in five years? (Wait for it, here it comes...) Well, he should fit right in: neither has Syracuse.

Flashback: Last year I predicted Syracuse would finish eighth in the league. The Orange finished tied for seventh with Louisville.

Fun with numbers: Under Robinson, Syracuse was 3-25 in Big East games. Of the Orange's last 20 Big East losses, only one was by less than 10 points.

If you happen to be in Vegas: Syracuse is 0-4 all-time against the pointspread vs. USF, losing by 27, 17, 31 and 32 points. USF visits Syracuse on Oct. 3.

Syracuse will finish better than eighth if: It can pull off at least one home upset (USF, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Rutgers all visit) and continue its recent domination of Louisville.

My Twitter post on the Orange (in 140 characters of less): Hey, if we played Louisville every game we'd be 12-0! We can't? Well, then when does basketball season start?