Bolts await Act 1 tonight

Like a playwright plotting out the second act in his mind, Lightning general manager Brian Lawton has gone through every scenario that could take place as the stage is set for tonight's first round of the NHL entry draft.

Only problem is, somebody else gets to write the opening scene.

Tampa Bay holds the second selection behind the New York Islanders. And with no clear-cut consensus as to which of three top prospects the Islanders will select, it leaves the Lightning with a number of situations to prepare for when their name is called on the draft floor.

"In our opinion, there are three top players available, and while holding the one spot would be an ideal situation, we feel at the second spot there is a high percentage of getting a top player," Lawton said. "We've gone back and forth and played out everything we think can happen. Now, we'll find out how it all plays out and the Tampa Bay Lightning will be ready for whatever happens."

While John Tavares, 18, has been the projected overall No. 1 pick since he splashed onto the junior hockey scene as a 15-year-old scoring dynamo, the forward from Oakville, Ontario, is not a lock to go first overall.

For the past two years, Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman, 18, has closed the gap in the minds of many scouts. With a 6-foot-6 frame, a strong skating ability, puck-moving skills and two years of playing against men in the Swedish Elite League, Hedman could be the cornerstone of a team's blue line for the next decade.

The wild card in the deck could be center Matt Duchene, 18, whose stock rose considerably in the second half of the season and was solidified with a strong playoff run with Brampton in the OHL. Duchene is considered the most well-rounded player in the draft and has drawn comparisons to Steve Yzerman and Joe Sakic for his two-way play and leadership qualities.

Whatever the Islanders intentions may be for the first pick, New York general manager Garth Snow isn't letting them be known. So that leaves everybody else to speculate on how things could unfold in the minutes after Snow strolls up to the podium to make the Islanders' selection.

Scenario 1

New York could do as expected and take Tavares, a potential franchise center who could fill seats in Nassau Coliseum and the Islanders get a new arena, much as Sidney Crosby did for Pittsburgh. That would leave the Lightning free to select Hedman, who fills an organizational void as a potential No. 1 defenseman.

Scenario 2

The Islanders could view Hedman as the cornerstone for their blue line and go with the big defenseman. That would leave Tampa Bay to choose between Tavares and Duchene, with Tavares the likely target.

It could also lead to talks with Toronto, which covets Tavares and could be willing to put together a last-minute package enticing enough for the Lightning to move down a few spots. Toronto has the seventh pick.

The Lightning could also use the pick to select Tavares and immediately start looking to trade captain Vinny Lecavalier for a package of players and/or draft picks to help build the franchise around Tavares and Steven Stamkos, last year's No. 1 pick.

Scenario 3

Recent speculation suggests New York may opt to surprise everybody and take Duchene first overall. That could prompt Tampa Bay to talk to Colorado, which has the third pick, about swapping positions. That would allow the Avalanche to take Tavares and the Lightning to choose Hedman.