Is Tebow ad a Hail Mary?

Very few people have actually seen Tim Tebow's 30-second pro-life ad, which is scheduled to air during Sunday night's presentation of Super Bowl XLIV on CBS. But for nearly three weeks, speculation over the anticipated television message has polarized much of the non-Gator nation.

Soon, the debate may shift to his off-field future.

Has the product endorsement potential of the former University of Florida quarterback significantly evaporated, even before he enters the National Football League?

Absolutely, said several marketing experts.

"Advertisers are certainly not looking to take a stand on an issue such as abortion," said Al Kestenbaum, president of Athletes in Advertising, based in Greenwich, Conn. Tebow might be a desirable spokesman "for companies of a conservative bent and such. But as far as something like being pictured on the Wheaties box? I think not," Kestenbaum said.

Has Tebow's popularity and image suffered in the eyes of his most ardent supporters?

Absolutely not, according to a random sampling of University of Florida football fans.

"You have to respect the way he consistently stands up for his beliefs," said Susan Lloyd, a St. Petersburg resident who earned a graduate degree from UF. "He's not like so many others, who hide behind the politically correct thing. I don't think he cares about criticism. I think it's something to be admired."

Football fans have been passionately choosing sides, almost since the day Tebow set foot on the Gainesville campus.

His quarterback skills, a combination of old-school toughness and new-wave creativity, helped him become a three-time finalist for the Heisman Trophy (and in 2007, the award's first sophomore winner). High-profile status, he often said, was a platform to express his religious views and help people. Each weekend, he wrote a different Bible verse in his eye-black.

The story of Tebow's birth became widely known. During the pregnancy, his mother, Pam, contracted dysentery through contaminated drinking water. (The family, evangelical Christians, was working in a mission and living in the Philippines.) In a 2005 interview with The Tampa Tribune, Pam Tebow said she was treated with heavy medication, which caused a premature separation of the placenta from the uterine wall.

Doctors said the fetus had been damaged. They recommended an abortion.

She refused, citing her religious beliefs and trust in God.

Tebow and his mother will appear in the ad for Focus on the Family, a conservative Christian group that described it as a "personal story centered on the theme of 'Celebrate Family, Celebrate Life.'"

"It's something I believe in and I'll stand up for," Tebow said last week during Senior Bowl preparations in Mobile, Ala. "It's a great opportunity to show something very happy and a special story and my mom fighting for me."

Then he added, "I definitely didn't think it would have this much hype."

Debate Seen Everywhere

The hype might have reached critical mass last week on "The View," when Joy Behar weighed in on Pam Tebow's decision to have her baby, who grew up to be a sports star, humanitarian and Heisman Trophy winner.

"The only argument against any of it is ... he could just as easily (have) become some kind of rapist pedophile," Behar said during the telecast. "I mean, you don't know what someone's going to be.

"(In) this particular case, this particular woman decided not to do it, and this is the wonderful result. There are others who decide to do it, and they're glad to do it. ... It's a very individual choice."

On her Facebook page, Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate, took on the National Organization for Women's criticism of Tebow.

"My message to these groups who are inexplicably offended by a pro-woman, pro-child, pro-life message airing during the Super Bowl: please concentrate on empowering women, help with efforts to prevent unexpected pregnancies, stay consistent with your message that for too long women have been made to feel like sex objects in our 'modern' culture and that we can expect better in 2010," Palin wrote.

David Carter, principal of the Los Angeles Sports Business Group and director of the USC Sports Business Institute, said the pregame discourse has been unprecedented.

"It's the breakthrough Super Bowl ad already," Carter said. "We've never seen anything like this. When you consider the amount of money to buy an ad like this (approximately $3 million), you've got to believe that they (Focus on the Family) will have received their return many times over by the time it actually airs on Sunday night.

"Interestingly, the people opposed to the ad are so loud and boisterous about their dissent, all that's doing is drawing more attention to it and making it more of a feature for Super Bowl Sunday."

People Will Be Watching

According to the latest Gallup annual poll, for the first time since the abortion issue became part of the questioning in 1995, more American adults consider themselves pro-life (51 percent) than pro-choice (42 percent).

But the question remains. As Tebow ascends into the National Football League, what happens to his image and marketability?

"I'm sure he knows there will be a backlash from some segments of the population, but I don't think that matters to him because this is in keeping with what he believes," said Gail Sideman, owner of Publiside, a Milwaukee-based public relations firm. "It's not like he's making a Hooters commercial or hanging with John Daly.

"At the same time, he's on a much bigger stage now instead of being shoehorned into the SEC. For a first-time endorser, he's sure going for the jugular. It's a double-edged sword because athletes are often criticized for not taking a stand on anything."

Tebow's ad comes at a volatile time in the athlete-endorsement business.

Golfer Tiger Woods, embroiled in a sex scandal, has lost several high-profile sponsors, including Gatorade, Buick, AT&T and Accenture.

U.S. Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps suffered a massive public relations hit after a photo surfaced of him inhaling from a marijuana pipe during a party. Phelps lost a deal with Kellogg's and was distanced by Subway, which eventually retained him.

"But when you're dealing with a special interest group in a very controversial kind of issue, that's a different situation completely," said Drew Kerr, president of New York-based Four Corners Communications. "Marketers don't want to be caught up in that crossfire. I think we're looking at the pool (of potential endorsements) for Tim Tebow being shortened quite dramatically."

Marti Barletta, CEO of The TrendSight Group, a Chicago-based firm that focuses on marketing to women, said she believes Tebow's ad will have little impact on his off-field potential.

"Unless Focus on the Family keeps using him as a long-term spokesperson, this will all blow over quickly - tempest in a teapot - and Tebow's endorsement career, if there is one, will be more or less unaffected," Barletta said in an e-mail interview.

And then there's the matter of the ad itself, which has been seen only by Focus on the Family officials and CBS screeners.

"Is it possible that after all the projecting, analysis and fury about this ad, that it turns out to be sort of benign, not that big of a deal?" said Carter, the Los Angeles-based sports business expert. "I think the only thing we know for certain is a lot of people will be watching."