Economy May Aid State's Tourism

TAMPA - Higher costs for lodging, transportation and other purchases are expected to keep vacationers closer to home, a trend the local tourism industry may be able to capitalize upon.

That was the general outlook presented Wednesday by AAA Auto Club South and a Florida State University tourism consultant in separate reports to representatives of Hillsborough County's visitors industry.

"Spending will be up, numbers of travelers down," Mark Bonn, an FSU professor and head of Bonn Marketing Group of Tallahassee, told about 75 travel industry officials in a 2008 outlook and 2007 retrospective at the Stetson University College of Law Tampa Law Center. "Things will be more expensive because the cost of doing business is rising."

Other tourism industry observers have said Florida could benefit from vacationers from out of state who might have planned to travel overseas but choose to take a less-expensive Florida vacation, especially with the unfavorable dollar exchange for U.S. travelers in Europe.

Most observers, however, agree that the sputtering economy and rising fuel prices will continue to take a toll on the travel industry nationwide and in Florida.

Two quarters of anemic economic growth will smack into the peak time for booking vacation trips, said Gregg Laskoski, managing director of public relations for AAA Auto Club in Tampa.

He said things will begin to improve in the quarter from July to September this year and that 2009 should bring good news on three critical travel fronts:

•The economy will rebound as the subprime housing crisis begins to abate and exports remain robust.

•Oil prices will begin to moderate.

•The U.S. dollar will begin to rebound against most currencies, particularly the euro and outbound destination currencies.

During the Memorial Day holiday, about 2.04 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home, which is virtually even with last year's projections, Laskoski said.

Hillsborough County visitors declined 0.9 percent in 2007 to 16.8 million, Bonn said. That figure that includes those making a day trip to and from the county, and overnight visitors staying in hotels, motels and staying with friends and relatives.

"I expect people might make shorter, but more frequent trips," Bonn said. "Hotels will still do well from February through April next year, but what happens the rest of the year is going to be interesting to see."

An AAA Auto Club survey of its members in March found that more than half plan to spend 10 days or more on vacation, with 2 percent indicating they plan to vacation for 10 to 14 days and 29 percent who said they planned to vacation for more than 14 days this year.

Two-thirds indicated they planned to travel in the summer, while 49 percent said they would travel in the fall.