A pair of scientists from Colorado State University said today they expect 18 storms to form this hurricane season, echoing a prediction by federal scientists last week that 2010 could be a highly active season.
The outlook by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State calls for three more named storms than the prediction they issued in April. They now expect 10 of those 18 storms to become hurricanes, including five growing to major storms with winds exceeding 111 mph.
In April, the team predicted 15 named storms with eight becoming hurricanes and four growing into major storms.
Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week called for 14 to 23 named storms and eight to 14 hurricanes this season, which ends Nov. 30.
The long-term average for hurricane seasons are 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two to three major storms.
Gray and Klotzbach cited the same basic reasons that NOAA scientists noted for the potentially intense season.
The El Niño, abnormally warm water over a vast stretch of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that damped hurricane development last season, has vanished and water temperatures have returned to normal.
An El Niño shifts the path of winds high in the atmosphere that can shear the tops from developing storms.
It is the main reason last season was below normal with nine named storms and only three hurricanes. No hurricanes hit the United States.
There is a chance the El Niño conditions could shift to its opposite, a La Niña, during this hurricane season. The La Niña, cooler than normal water in the Pacific, creates conditions that can make it easier for storms to develop.
Also, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are higher than normal across the tropics. Warm water is fuel for hurricanes.
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