NOAA predicts up to 14 hurricanes this season

Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today the 2010 hurricane season could produce as many as twice the number of storms seen in an average season.

The NOAA outlook said the season could have 14 to 23 named storms with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes. Three to seven of those could be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with winds topping 111 mph.

The lower end of the prediction from NOAA, which oversees the National Hurricane Center, is close to the outlook from William Gray and Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University who last month forecast 15 named storms this season with four becoming major hurricanes.

Unlike Gray and Klotzbach, NOAA's outlook is in a range rather than a specific number.

The upper end of NOAA's range, though, is more than twice the number of named storms seen in an average season of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

A main reason NOAA predicts an active hurricane season is because water in the Pacific Ocean has cooled to near normal temperatures after being warmer than normal last summer.

Called an El Niño, the warm water over a vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean causes changes in winds high in the atmosphere that can snuff out developing hurricanes.

It is the main reason the 2009 season produced only nine named storms with three becoming hurricanes.

Another reason for the anticipated active season is the extremely warm water across the Atlantic Ocean where storms develop. Temperatures in the development region of the tropical Atlantic are up to 4 degrees above normal.

Also, since 1995, the Atlantic Ocean has been in a period of active hurricane seasons with more storms than the long-term average of 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two or three major storms.

NOAA scientists expect this period to continue.

Eight of the past 15 hurricane seasons are in the top 10 for the most storms. With 28 storms, 2005 is the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.

NOAA's prediction does not say where individual storms will go or how many will make landfall.