How prepared is the Tampa area for storm season?

Get ready for a white-knuckle hurricane season.

No hurricane has hit Florida since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. That lucky streak could end this season, which starts Tuesday.

This year, Floridians can't count on an expanse of warm water in the Pacific Ocean - El Niño - that shifted wind patterns and snuffed out developing storms during the 2009 season.

Last year's hurricane season generated nine named storms, including three hurricanes. No hurricanes hit the United States last year.

The El Niño faded over the spring and its absence is one reason scientists expect a hyperactive season this year.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are calling for 14 to 23 named storms and eight to 14 hurricanes this season that ends Nov. 30.

The calm of past years has emergency officials worried residents have become complacent and may not be ready if a storm does hit.

The faded memories since 2005 could keep residents from getting ready and not buying food, water or supplies until a storm is threatening, meaning thousands of people could be without the basics.

"You don't need to live in fear, but you need to have a plan. You need to be prepared," said David Halstead, director of the state Division of Emergency Management. "What are you going to do if you're without power for three or four days?"

To complicate matters, millions of gallons of oil have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico from the ruptured BP well 50 miles from the Louisiana coast. Scientists can only speculate on what might happen if a storm hits the oil.

The 2010 season brings a few changes for Tampa Bay area residents with new evacuation zones and more warning time from forecasters.

Are we prepared in the Tampa Bay area? Here's what to expect if a storm threatens:

Evacuation Zones

Emergency officials revamped evacuation zones in the Tampa Bay area, meaning more people will be told to flee less powerful storms. And about 200,000 people in Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas and Manatee counties who never had to worry about evacuating will have to leave if a rare Category 5 hurricane with winds topping 155 mph threatens.

The new zones were developed using more accurate airborne radar elevation measurements and more refined models of how far storm surge from a hurricane will move inland.

Evacuation zones are set by gauging how far inland storm surge flooding will reach for each category of hurricane. Zone A corresponds to the weakest of hurricanes, Zone B to the next category and so on up to Zone E for the most destructive hurricane category.

Changes in evacuation zones don't affect insurance rates. Flood zones that trigger mandatory flood insurance are based on freshwater flooding such as lakes, rivers or excessive rainfall, not from a hurricane's storm surge.

The evacuation maps can be found at TBO.com, keyword: Hurricane, or at county emergency management sites.

Earlier Warning

This season the National Hurricane Center will give more warning when a storm approaches. Storm warnings and watches will be issued 12 hours earlier than in past seasons.

The center will issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch when those conditions are expected within 48 hours. A hurricane or tropical storm warning will go out when those conditions are expected in 36 hours.

Improvements in forecast accuracy allow the hurricane center to provide longer lead time for watches and warnings. Forecasts of a storm's track have become more accurate by about 2 percent a year.

Forecasts for a storm's intensity have not improved as much.

Gas stations with generators

In the aftermath of storms during the brutal 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, motorists had to scramble for fuel as gas stations had gasoline but no power to run the pumps.

The state's answer was a law ordering gas stations within a half mile of evacuation routes be equipped with a generator to power the pumps.

Four years later, all 970 stations covered by the law either have a generator or are wired to hook one up, said Terry McElroy, spokesman for the state's Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, the agency that regulates gas stations.

In addition, the law required new gas stations or newly remodeled ones get wired for generators regardless of how close they are to an evacuation route. So far, 207 of those gas stations can run on generator power.

Converting a gas station's wiring to handle a generator wasn't cheap. McElroy said estimates for the work ranged from $15,000 to $20,000.

Evacuating with public transportation

When emergency officials order an evacuation, thousands of people in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties pile into their cars and hit the road. But thousands have no vehicle and must rely on public transportation to reach a shelter.

Bus systems in Hillsborough and Pinellas will waive fares during an evacuation. The buses will stop running when sustained winds top 39 mph.

Once an evacuation order goes out, the Hillsborough Area Regional Transportation Authority will run 10 evacuation routes with four buses each along major arteries. The routes will end at evacuation shelters.

Stops along the routes are marked with special signs identifying them as evacuation routes.

More buses can be added to the routes if needed, said Joe Diaz, HART manager for safety and security. With four buses running each route, the wait between buses should be about 20 minutes, he said.

Brochures showing the evacuation routes can be found on HART buses and at terminals. The routes also can be found online at www.gohart.org.

The Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority plans to run its rush-hour bus routes around the clock after an evacuation order. Many of the system's routes go past hurricane shelters, said spokesman Bob Lasher.

He estimates about 160 buses will be running and, because Pinellas is so densely populated, the bus system covers most of the county. In addition, supervisors will be at some bus stops to answer questions.

If not enough drivers are available, managers will step in, he said.

Evacuating nursing homes

Nursing homes and assisted living facilities are required by state law to develop evacuation plans if the buildings are in evacuation zones. Local emergency management officials review and approve the plans.

Under state law, nursing homes cannot send patients to public shelters, even special needs shelters staffed by medical personnel. The patients should be sent to a similar facility on higher ground.

The state requires evacuation plans to include how the operators will transport the residents, where they will go and a primary and alternate evacuation route.

Holley Wade, spokeswoman for Hillsborough Emergency Management, said it's a good idea when considering a nursing home in an evacuation zone to ask about the facility's emergency plan. However, there's no requirement for operators to reveal it.

The plans are exempt from the state's public records law, an exemption granted during concerns for heightened security after 9/11.

TGH's storm plan

Tampa General Hospital is the region's top trauma center as well as one of only four burn centers in the state.

It's also on an island in an evacuation zone, but there are no plans to abandon the hospital during a storm.

The hospital will remain open and operating, said Janet Davis, vice president for acute care and co-chair of the hospital's committee that plans for hurricanes.

During the worst storm, water would not reach above the hospital's second floor, she said. Patients would be moved to higher floors. Generators, portable oxygen generators and air conditioning units are above the second floor, she said.

The pharmacy will be stocked with two weeks of medications and the hospital kitchens will also have enough food for two weeks.

Hospital workers know they may be there for an extended period after a storm and the hospital will provide child care for workers who have no other place to take their children.

"The hurricane only lasts a short time. What you have to plan for is after the disaster," Davis said.

With the possibility that a severe storm could knock out bridges to the 988-bed hospital, supplies and patients, if necessary, could be brought in by boat, she said. The roof of a new parking garage can handle large helicopters.

The hospital's own helicopters will be flown to a safe location before the storm and return as quickly as possible.