Forecasters say Alex has weakened to a tropical depression, but the cyclone is expected to regain strength in the coming days as it moves out over warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters say the storm will meet favorable conditions in the Gulf with warm water and nearly no shear - wind blowing different directions at different altitudes that can disrupt a storm.
Alex, the hurricane center said, might even muscle up to a Category 3 hurricane with winds more than 111 mph, though the center's forecast doesn't call for Alex to reach that strength.
The hurricane center expects Alex to reach hurricane strength on Tuesday and hit its peak intensity on Thursday at about 98 mph just off the coast of Mexico or southern Texas.
Forecasters are fairly sure Alex will continue moving to the west northwest about 12 mph for a day or so as it gets into the Gulf. The storm is expected to slow in early next week.
That's when the models begin to split and a trough begins to erode an area of high pressure over Florida around the middle of the week that's keeping Alex from turning more to the north.
While most models take the storm back over the coast of Mexico around the end of the work week, a few strays project the storm moving toward the coast of Texas and Louisiana and much closer to the oil spill.
The hurricane center's forecast has the storm moving into Mexico.
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